Air Freight Posts Stronger September Growth & Strong Passenger Demand Resumes in September

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets in September 2016 showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), rose 6.1% year-on-year. This was the fastest pace of growth since the disruption caused by the US West Coast seaports strike in February 2015.

Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs), increased 4.7% over the same period. Load factors remained historically low, keeping yields under pressure.

September’s positive performance coincided with an apparent turnaround in new export orders in recent months. Some unique factors also may have contributed, such as the rush replacement of Samsung Galaxy Note 7 devices during the month, as well as the early impacts of the collapse of the Hanjin marine shipping line at the end of August.

"Demand for air cargo strengthened in September. Although with growth in world trade virtually at a standstill, the air cargo sector still faces some major hurdles. We did have some encouraging news. The conclusion of the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement is good news for the economies involved and for air cargo. Growth is the way to overcome the world’s current economic challenges. The EU-Canada agreement is a welcome respite from the current protectionist rhetoric and positive results should soon be evident. Governments everywhere should take note and move in the same direction," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

¹% of industry FTKs in 2015   ²Year-on-year change in load factor   ³Load factor level 

Regional Performance

Airlines in all regions except Latin America reported an increase in year-on-year demand in September. However results continued to vary considerably.

• Asia-Pacific airlines saw freight volumes increase by 5.5% in September 2016 compared to the same period last year. Capacity in the region expanded 3.4%.The positive Asia-Pacific performance corresponds with signs of an increase in export orders in China and Japan over the last few months. Seasonally-adjusted freight results for Asia-Pacific carriers are now trending upwards.
• European airlines experienced a 12.6% increase in freight volumes in September 2016. Capacity increased 6.4%. The strong European performance corresponds with an increase in reported new export orders in Germany over the last few months.
• North American carriers saw freight volumes expand 4.5% in September 2016 year-on-year, as capacity increased 2.6%. International freight volumes grew by 6.2% – their fastest pace since the US seaports disruption boosted demand in February 2015. However, in seasonally-adjusted terms volumes are still just below the level seen in January 2015. The strength of the US dollar continues to keep the US export market under pressure.
• Middle Eastern carriers saw demand growth slow for the third consecutive month to 1.2% year-on-year in September 2016 - the slowest pace since July 2009. Capacity increased by 6.2%. Seasonally-adjusted freight growth, which had been trending upwards until the past year or so year, has now halted. This turnaround in performance is partly due to weaker conditions in the Middle East-to-Asia and Middle East-to-North America markets.  
• Latin American airlines reported a decline in demand of 4.5% and a drop in capacity of 4.7% in September 2016, compared to the same period in 2015. The ‘within South America’ market has been the weakest performing market so far this year with volumes contracting 14% year-on-year in August, the most recent month for which route specific data are available. The comparative strength of the US economy has helped boost volumes between North and South America with US imports by air from Colombia and Brazil increasing by 5% and 13% year-on-year respectively.
• African carriers saw freight demand increase by 12.7% in September 2016 compared to the same month last year – the fastest rate in nearly two years. Capacity surged year-on-year by 34% on the back of long-haul expansion in particular by Ethiopian Airlines and North African carriers.

View September freight results (pdf)

Pasenger

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for September showing that demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, or RPKs) grew 7% compared to the same month in 2015. This was the strongest year-over-year increase in seven months. Capacity climbed 6.6% and load factor edged up 0.3 percentage points to 81.1%. Growth in domestic traffic slightly outpaced growth in international traffic.

"September’s growth in passenger demand was healthy. Importantly, this rebound from August weakness suggests that travel demand is showing its resilience in the aftermath of terror attacks. We must, of course, be ever-alert to the ongoing terror threat. And overall the industry is still vulnerable to being buffeted by rising geopolitical tensions, protectionist political agendas, and weak economic fundamentals. This will still be a good year for the airline industry’s performance, but our profitability will continue to be hard-won," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

   ¹% of industry RPKs in 2015   ²Year-on-year change in load factor   ³Load factor level   

International Passenger Markets
International RPKs climbed 6.9% with airlines in all regions recording growth compared to 2015. Total capacity climbed 7.2%, causing load factor to slide 0.2 percentage points to 80.4%.

• European carriers saw September demand rise 5.2% over September 2015. Capacity rose 5.7% and load factor slipped 0.4 percentage points to 84.8%, which was the highest among regions. Demand growth seems to be returning to normal after the disruption caused by terrorism and political instability.
• Asia-Pacific airlines’ traffic rose 8.6% in September compared to the year-ago period, although there are still signs of Asian travelers being put off by terrorism in Europe. Capacity increased 7.7%, and load factor rose 0.7 percentage points to 77.9%.
• Middle East carriers had an 11.5% rise in demand in September compared to a year ago, which was the largest increase among regions. Capacity rose faster, however, up 13.8%, and load factor dropped 1.5 percentage points to 73.9%.
• North American airlines experienced a 3.3% rise in demand. While the upward trend in international traffic has eased of late, seasonally-adjusted passenger volumes have risen at an annualized rate of 6% since March. Capacity rose 4.2% and load factor fell 0.7 percentage points to 81.5%.
• Latin American airlines’ September traffic rose 7.1% compared to the same month last year, aided by strong demand on international routes within the region. Capacity climbed just 2.4% and load factor surged 3.6 percentage points to 83.7%, second highest among regions.
• African airlines posted an 8% rise in traffic which was matched by an equivalent rise in capacity. Load factor was almost flat at 72.0%. The strong demand increase largely reflected favorable year-ago comparisons, as economic conditions in much of the continent remain challenging.

Domestic Passenger Markets 

Domestic demand climbed 7.2% in September compared to September 2015, which was up from the 4.1% year-on-year growth recorded in August. India and China continued to experience double-digit annual traffic increases while elsewhere, results were decidedly mixed. All markets except Australia registered all-time highs in September load factors.

¹% of industry RPKs in 2015   ²Year-on-year change in load factor   ³Load factor level  *Note: the seven domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for 30% of global total RPKs and approximately 82% of total domestic RPKs        

• US domestic traffic resumed its healthy growth after a slowdown in July and August, rising 4.6% in September year-over-year.
• Japan’s domestic traffic slid 0.7% in September against a backdrop of weak consumer spending.

The Bottom Line

October saw the global aviation industry take a major step ahead to ensure that its growth is sustainable. "The nations of the world came together through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to agree a plan to offset the environmental impact generated by future air traffic growth. In taking this unprecedented step toward achieving long-term sustainability for an entire industrial sector, governments recognized the immense contribution aviation makes to economic development and global well-being. In conjunction with our investments in more efficient technologies, infrastructure and operations, this will ensure that aviation can continue to be the business of freedom, connecting our world with safe, efficient, reliable and sustainable air transport," said de Juniac.

View full September passenger traffic analysis  (pdf)