IATA: Air Freight Marks Modest Growth in October, Up 3.1%; Passenger Demand Rebounds in October

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), rose 3.1% in October 2018, compared to the same period the year before. This pace of growth was up from a 29-month low of 2.5% in September. 

Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs), rose by 5.4% year-on-year in October 2018. This was the eighth month in a row that capacity growth outstripped demand. 

Growing international e-commerce and an upturn in the global investment cycle are supporting the growth. However, demand continues to be negatively impacted by:

• A contraction in export order books in all major exporting nations in October;  
• Longer supplier delivery times in Asia and Europe;
• Weakened consumer confidence compared to very high levels at the beginning of 2018.

“Cargo is a tough business, but we can be cautiously optimistic as we approach the end of 2018. Slow but steady growth continues despite trade tensions. The growth of e-commerce is more than making up for sluggishness in more traditional markets. And yields are strengthening in the traditionally busy fourth quarter. We must be conscious of the economic headwinds, but the industry looks set to bring the year to a close on a positive note,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO.   

¹% of industry FTKs in 2017   ²Year-on-year change in load factor   ³Load factor level

Regional Performance

All regions reported year-on-year demand growth in October 2018, except Africa which contracted. 

• Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for air freight grow by 1.9% in October 2018, compared to the same period last year. This pace of growth was relatively unchanged from the previous month. Weaker manufacturing conditions for exporters, and longer supplier delivery times particularly in China and Korea impacted the demand. As the largest freight-flying region, carrying more than one-third of the total, the risks from rising trade tensions are disproportionately high. Capacity increased by 4.2%.
• North American airlines posted the fastest growth of any region in October 2018, with an increase in demand of 6.6% compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 8.2% over the same period. The strength of the US economy and consumer spending have helped support the demand for air cargo over the past year, benefiting US carriers.
• European airlines experienced a 1.4% increase in freight demand in October 2018 compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 1.9% year-on-year. Weaker manufacturing conditions for exporters, and longer supplier delivery times particularly in Germany, Europe’s largest freight flying country, impacted demand. Seasonally-adjusted international air cargo demand remained deflated in October, which could indicate the start of a broader weakening in demand.
• Middle Eastern airlines’ freight volumes expanded 5.0% in October 2018 compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 8.8% over the same period. There are signs of a pick-up in seasonally-adjusted international air cargo demand helped by more trade to/from Europe and Asia. 
• Latin American airlines’ freight demand rose 0.3% in October 2018 compared to the same period last year and capacity increased by 3.3%. International demand slipped by 0.9%, marking the first contraction in 11months. International freight volumes have fallen month-on-month in four of the past five months, reflecting broad weakness in the region’s key markets. 
• African carriers saw freight demand decrease by 4.2% in October 2018, compared to the same month last year. This was the seventh time in eight months that demand shrank. Capacity increased by 5.4% year-on-year. Demand conditions on all key markets to and from Africa remain weak. Nonetheless, seasonally-adjusted international freight volumes have stopped declining and recovered sharply in recent months. 

View full October freight traffic analysis

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for October showing that demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, or RPKs) rose 6.3% compared to the same month last year. This marked a rebound from 5.5% growth recorded in September, which was an eight-month low. Capacity also grew 6.3% and load factor was flat at 81.1%, matching last year’s record for the month.

“October’s healthy performance is reassuring after the slower demand growth in September—some of which was attributable to weather-related disruptions. However, the bigger picture is that traffic growth has moderated compared to earlier in the year, reflecting a more mixed economic backdrop and reduced demand stimulation from lower fares,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

¹% of industry RPKs in 2017   ²Year-on-year change in load factor   ³Load factor level

International Passenger Markets

October international passenger demand rose 6.3% compared to October 2017, up from 5.1% growth in September. Airlines in all regions recorded gains. Total capacity climbed 6.1%, and load factor increased 0.1 percentage point to 79.8%.
 

• European carriers’ October demand climbed 7.5% over October 2017, which was the strongest growth among regions and well up on the 5.3% increase for September. Capacity rose 7.0% and load factor edged up 0.4 percentage point to 85.2%, highest among regions. Given mixed signals on the economic situation for the region, it’s unclear if the rebound is sustainable.

• Asia-Pacific airlines’ traffic rose 5.8% compared to the year-ago period, up from 5.4% year-over-year growth in September. Capacity climbed 5.4% and load factor rose 0.3 percentage points to 78.9%. Underlying passenger demand is continuing to be supported by structural changes, including rising living standards in the region, as well as network changes that stimulate demand. 

• Middle East carriers experienced a 4.4% rise in demand in October compared to last year, slowest among the regions for the seventh time in 12 months. It was, however, an increase over the 3.3% increase in September. Capacity increased 6.4%, and load factor slid 1.3 percentage points to 69.8%, lowest among regions. Carriers have been buffeted by policy measures and geopolitical tensions in recent years, including the ban on portable electronic devices and travel restrictions. However, while volatile, passenger volumes are trending up solidly in seasonally-adjusted terms.

• North American airlines’ traffic climbed 5.6% in October compared to the year-ago period, up from 4.9% growth in September. Strong momentum in the US economy is helping to drive robust international demand. Capacity rose 3.7% and load factor surged 1.4 percentage points to 80.4%. 

• Latin American airlines were the only carriers to experience a slowdown in growth as demand rose 5.9% versus 6.3% in September. Capacity climbed 9.1%, and load factor dropped 2.4 percentage points to 80.4%. 

• African airlines’ traffic grew 6.8% year-on-year in October, raised from 6% annual growth in September. The upward trend in passenger demand remains strong notwithstanding challenges in the economic backdrop of the continent’s largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa. Capacity rose 5.5%, and load factor climbed 0.9 percentage point to 70.3%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic demand climbed 6.4% in October compared to October 2017, unchanged from September, while capacity rose 6.7%. Load factor slipped 0.2 percentage point to 83.3%. China, India and Russia led all markets with double-digit growth rates. 
 

¹% of industry RPKs in 2017   ²Year-on-year change in load factor   ³Load factor level
*Note: the seven domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for 30% of global total RPKs and approximately 82% of total domestic RPKs

• Russia enjoyed double-digit domestic traffic growth for the third consecutive month as traffic rose 11.7% compared to the year-ago period. 
• Japan’s domestic demand recovered after the significant typhoon-related disruptions in September caused traffic to decline 4.7% compared to a year ago. October traffic rose 1.7%. 

The Big Picture

“Demand for air travel is strong as we head into the holiday travel season. Trade wars and uncertainty around the political and economic impact of Brexit remain concerns but the recent easing of fuel prices is a welcome development. In a few days, IATA will hold our annual Global Media Day in Geneva, bringing together more than 100 journalists and bloggers from around the world. We will present our updated economic forecast, among other topics. I always look forward to this opportunity to discuss and debate the key issues and initiatives facing commercial aviation with our colleagues in the media,” said de Juniac.

View full October passenger traffic analysis