IATA: Strong International Traffic Propels Continuing Air Travel Recovery; Fall in Air Cargo Demand in line with Expectations

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that air travel resumed its strong recovery trend in April, despite the war in Ukraine and travel restrictions in China. This was driven primarily by international demand.

Note: We have returned to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted. Owing to the low traffic base in 2021, some markets will show very high year-on-year growth rates, even if the size of these markets is still significantly smaller than they were in 2019.

 

• Total demand for air travel in April 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was up 78.7% compared to April 2021 and slightly ahead of March 2022’s 76.0% year-over-year increase.
• April domestic air travel was down 1.0% compared to the year-ago period, a reversal from the 10.6% demand rise in March. This was driven entirely by continuing strict travel restrictions in China, where domestic traffic was down 80.8% year-to-year. Overall, April domestic traffic was down 25.8% versus April 2019.
• International RPKs rose 331.9% versus April 2021, an acceleration over the 289.9% rise in March 2022 compared to a year ago. Several route areas are actually above pre-pandemic levels, including Europe – Central America, Middle East – North America and North America – Central America. April 2022 international RPKs were down 43.4% compared to the same month in 2019.

“With the lifting of many border restrictions, we are seeing the long-expected surge in bookings as people seek to make up for two years of lost travel opportunities. April data is cause for optimism in almost all markets, except China, which continues to severely restrict travel. The experience of the rest of the world is demonstrating that increased travel is manageable with high levels of population immunity and the normal systems for disease surveillance. We hope that China can recognize this success soon and take its own steps towards normality,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Air Passenger Market Detail - April 2022 

APRIL 2022 (% YEAR ON YEAR)	WORLD SHARE1	RPK	ASK	PLF (%-PT)2	PLF (LEVEL)3
Total Market	100%	78.7%	45.5%	14.5%	77.8%
Africa	1.9%	108.4%	66.4%	13.7%	68.0%
Asia Pacific	27.6%	-25.4%	-25.3%	-0.1%	67.0%
Europe	25.0%	301.6%	172.5%	26.6%	79.5%
Latin America	6.5%	139.2%	114.4%	8.4%	80.9%
Middle East	6.5%	238.1%	91.3%	30.9%	71.3%
North America	32.6%	78.5%	43.8%	16.7%	85.8%

1) % of industry RPKs in 2021    2) Year on year change in load factor    3) Load Factor Level 

International Passenger Markets

European carriers’ April international traffic rose 480.0% versus April 2021, substantially up over the 434.3% increase in March 2022 versus the same month in 2021. Capacity rose 233.5% and load factor climbed 33.7 percentage points to 79.4%.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw their April international traffic climb 290.8% compared to April 2021, significantly improved on the 197.2% gain registered in March 2022 versus March 2021. Capacity rose 88.6% and the load factor was up 34.6 percentage points to 66.8%, still the lowest among regions.

Middle Eastern airlines had a 265.0% demand rise in April compared to April 2021, bettering the 252.7% increase in March 2022, versus the same month in 2021. April capacity rose 101.0% versus the year-ago period, and load factor climbed 32.2 percentage points to 71.7%.

North American carriers’ April traffic rose 230.2% versus the 2021 period, slightly above the 227.9% rise in March 2022 compared to March 2021. Capacity rose 98.5%, and load factor climbed 31.6 percentage points to 79.3%.

Latin American airlines experienced a 263.2% rise in April traffic, compared to the same month in 2021, exceeding the 241.2% rise in March 2022 over March 2021. April capacity rose 189.1% and load factor increased 16.8 percentage points to 82.3%, which easily was the highest load factor among the regions for the 19th consecutive month.

African airlines’ traffic rose 116.2% in April 2022 versus a year ago, an acceleration over the 93.3% year-over-year increase recorded in March 2022. April 2022 capacity was up 65.7% and load factor climbed 15.7 percentage points to 67.3%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

1) % of industry RPKs in 2021    2) Year on year change in load factor   3) Load Factor Level 

Australia’s domestic demand rose 47.5% compared to April 2021, an improvement over the 36.5% rise in March traffic, owing to the lifting of travel restrictions and rising consumer confidence.

Japan likewise saw monthly gains, with domestic RPKs up 57.0% year-over-year, up from a 46.5% rise in March 2022 compared to March 2021.  

2022 vs 2019

Total April passenger demand was down 37.2% compared to the same month in 2019, which is an improvement compared to the 41.3% decline for March 2022 versus March 2019.

Air Passenger Market Detail 2022 vs 2019

2021 CALENDR YEAR (% YEAR ON YEAR)	WORLD SHARE1	RPK	ASK	PLF (%-PT)2	PLF (LEVEL)3
Total Market	100%	-37.2%	-32.9%	-5.3%	77.8%
International	37.7%	-43.4%	-38.6%	-6.5%	76.2%
Domestic	62.3%	-25.8%	-22.4%	-3.7%	80.1%

1) % of industry RPKs in 2021    2) Year on year change in load factor    3) Load Factor Level 

The Bottom Line

“With the northern summer travel season now upon us, two things are clear: two-years of border restrictions have not weakened the desire for the freedom to travel. Where it is permitted, demand rapidly is returning to pre-COVID levels. However, it is also evident that the failings in how governments managed the pandemic have continued into the recovery. With governments making U-turns and policy changes there was uncertainty until the last minute, leaving little time to restart an industry that was largely dormant for two years. It is no wonder that we are seeing operational delays in some locations. In those few locations where these problems are recurring, solutions need to be found so passengers can travel with confidence.

“In less than two weeks, leaders of the global aviation community will gather in Doha at the 78th IATA Annual General Meeting (AGM) and World Air Transport Summit. This year’s AGM will take place as a wholly in-person event for the first time since 2019. It should send a strong signal that it is time for governments to lift any remaining restrictions and requirements and prepare for an enthusiastic response by consumers who are voting with their feet for a full restoration of their right to travel,” said Walsh.

View the full April 2022 Air Passenger Market Analysis (pdf)

CARGO

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released April 2022 data for global air cargo markets showing a drop in demand and contraction in capacity. The effects of Omicron in Asia and the Russia–Ukraine war continue to create a challenging operating backdrop that is driving the decline.

Note: We returned to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted.

• Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs*), fell 11.2% compared to April 2021(-10.6% for international operations). Global demand is down 1% compared to April 2019.
• Capacity was 2% below 2021 (+1.2% for international operations). Both global capacity and international capacity decreased slightly in April compared to March. Asia experienced the largest falls in capacity.
• Key factors in the operating environment should be noted:
  • The war in Ukraine led to a fall in cargo capacity used to serve Europe as several airlines based in Russia and Ukraine were key cargo players. And the zero-COVID policy in China led to capacity challenges due to flight cancellations because of labor shortages.
  • New export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand and world trade are now shrinking in all markets except the US. Global goods trade has continued to decline in 2022, with China’s economy growing more slowly because of COVID-19 related lockdowns (among other factors). The lockdowns have brought much of the world’s largest port, Shanghai, to a standstill. Supply chain disruptions due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict are also adding to the downward pressure on trade.

“Air cargo demand fell by 11.2% in April and capacity contracted 2% compared to April 2021. The combination of the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China have pushed up energy costs, intensified supply chain disruptions, and fed inflation. The operating environment is challenging for all businesses, including air cargo. But with China easing lockdown restrictions, there is cause for some optimism and the supply/demand imbalance is keeping yields high,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.  

April Regional Performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 15.8% in April 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was the weakest performance of all regions and significantly slower than the previous month (-5.1%). Airlines in the region have been heavily impacted by lower trade and manufacturing activity due to Omicron-related lockdowns in China. Because of this, available capacity in the region fell 19.4% compared to April 2021, the largest drop of all regions.

North American carriers posted a 6.6% decrease in cargo volumes in April 2022 compared to April 2021. Demand in the Asia-North America market declined significantly, however, other key routes such as Europe – North America remain strong. Capacity was up 5.2% compared to April 2021. Several carriers in the region are set to receive delivery of freighters in 2022, which should help address pent-up demand on routes where it is needed.

European carriers saw a 14.4% decrease in cargo volumes in April 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. The Within Europe market fell significantly, down 24.6% month on month.  This is attributable to the war in Ukraine. Labor shortages and lower manufacturing activity in Asia due to Omicron also affected volumes. Capacity fell 0.2% in April 2022 compared to April 2021.  

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 11.9% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in April. Significant benefits from traffic being redirected to avoid flying over Russia failed to materialize. This is likely due to persisting supply chain issues in Asia. Capacity was up 6% compared to April 2021.

Latin American carriers reported an increase of 40.9% in cargo volumes in April 2022 compared to the 2021 period. This was the strongest performance of all regions. Airlines in this region have shown optimism by introducing new services and capacity, and in some cases investing in additional aircraft for air cargo in the coming months.  Capacity in April was up 67.8% compared to the same month in 2021. 

African airlines saw cargo volumes decrease by 6.3% in April 2022 compared to April 2021. This was significantly slower than the growth recorded the previous month (3.1%). Capacity was 1.5% below April 2021 levels.

AIR CARGO MARKET DETAIL-APRIL 2022	WORLD SHARE (% YEAR ON YEAR)	CTK	ACTK	CLF(%-PT)2	CLF(LEVEL)3
Total Market	100%	-11.2%	-2.0%	-5.3%	51.6%
Africa	1.9%	-6.3%	-1.5%	-2.5%	49.0%
Asia Pacific	32.5%	-15.8%	-19.4%	2.7%	63.1%
Europe	22.9%	-14.4%	-0.2%	-9.6%	57.8%
Latin America	2.2%	40.9%	67.8%	-8.0%	41.9%
Middle East	13.4%	-11.9%	6.0%	-10.2%	50.4%
North America	27.2%	-6.6%	5.2%	-5.3%	41.9%

1) % of industry RPKs in 2021    2) Year-on-year in load factor    3) Load Factor Level 

Access Air Freight Monthly Analysis (pdf)